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Saudi Arabia’s economy contracted 4.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, as a sharp fall in oil activities outweighed continued growth in the non-oil economy, according to flash estimates from the General Authority for Statistics (Gastat).

The contraction was driven by a 24.7% year-on-year drop in oil activities, which cut 5.4 percentage points from the headline figure. Non-oil activities grew 0.6% and government activities rose 0.9%, contributing 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points respectively. Net taxes on products added a further 0.1 percentage points.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, real GDP fell 4.9% from the first quarter, with oil activities down 21.5% quarter-on-quarter. Non-oil activities eased 0.5% over the same period, while government activities rose 0.2%.

The second-quarter figures mark a reversal from the first quarter, when the economy grew 3% year-on-year. In the first quarter, both oil and non-oil activities expanded by 2.9% and government activities rose 1.5%, with growth recorded across all major sectors. Oil activities have since swung from that modest expansion to a steep contraction, while non-oil growth has slowed from 2.9% to 0.6%.

The divergence between the oil and non-oil economy has widened as a result. While crude output fell steeply in the second quarter, the broader non-oil sector, the focus of the kingdom’s economic diversification programme, continued to expand, albeit at a slower pace than in the opening months of the year.

Public finances

The contraction came in a quarter when higher oil revenue improved the public finances. The budget deficit narrowed to SR34.29bn in the second quarter, down from SR125.71bn in the first, as oil revenue rose 22% year-on-year to SR185.13bn, according to the Finance Ministry’s quarterly budget performance report. Total revenue reached SR338.78bn, up 12% on the same period of 2025, while non-oil revenue increased 3% to SR153.66bn.

Total spending rose 11% year-on-year to SR373.07bn. The sharpest increases were in grants, up 199% to SR1.24bn, subsidies, up 73% to SR13.27bn, and financing expenses, up 41% to SR16.81bn. Capital spending rose 16% to SR46.23bn.

For the first half, the deficit totalled SR160bn, financed entirely through borrowing with no drawdown on government reserves. Revenue for the six months rose 6% year-on-year to SR599.76bn, while spending increased 15% to SR759.76bn. Actual first-half spending reached 58% of the full-year budget of SR1.312tn. Health and social development recorded the highest sectoral outlay at SR170.61bn, followed by the military at SR124.57bn and education at SR109.73bn.

Public debt reached SR1.684tn by the end of the first half, up from an opening balance of SR1.519tn. Domestic debt stood at SR1.060tn and external debt at SR624.9bn. The government reserve closing balance was SR399.07bn.

The kingdom has continued to tap the domestic debt market. The National Debt Management Centre closed its July 2026 issuance under the Saudi Arabian Government riyal-denominated sukuk programme at SR5.35bn, divided into five tranches. The largest, at SR3.83bn, matures in 2031, with further tranches of SR515m maturing in 2033, SR204m in 2036, SR300m in 2039 and SR500m in 2041.

READ THE AUGUST 2026 MEED BUSINESS REVIEW – click here to view PDF

Saudi Arabia builds for the global stage; Rising uncertainty creates fresh set of challenges in the Maghreb; Gulf banks remain robust in the face of geopolitical tensions.

Distributed to senior decision-makers in the region and around the world, the August 2026 edition of MEED Business Review includes: